Economists see elevated inflation lasting into 2022 |
Uncomfortably high inflation will grip the U.S. economy well into 2022, as constrained supply chains keep upward pressure on prices and, increasingly, curb output, according to economists surveyed this month by the Wall Street Journal. Economists on average see inflation at 5.25% in December, just slightly less than the rate that has prevailed since June. Assuming a similar level in October and November, that would mark the longest inflation has been above 5% since early 1991. “It’s a perfect storm: supply-chain bottlenecks, tight labor markets, ultra-easy monetary and fiscal policies,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Capital Markets America. Consumer-price inflation will drop to 3.4% by June of next year, then 2.6% by the end of 2022, according to respondents’ average estimates. Economists slashed growth forecasts this year, to an average 3.1% annualized in the third quarter from 7% in the July survey. They also lowered projected fourth-quarter growth to 4.8% from 5.4%.