AI to widen economic divide between countries, Moody’s warns |
A Moody’s Ratings report highlights that AI is set to boost global productivity by around 1.5% annually, but with uneven benefits, as advanced economies could see gains closer to 2% compared to roughly 1% in emerging markets due to stronger infrastructure, skills, and digital access. The research warns that AI will reshape labor markets through both job augmentation and displacement, with up to one-third of workers in advanced economies and nearly a quarter in emerging markets at risk—particularly in mid-level clerical and administrative roles, where women are disproportionately represented. While AI could strengthen public finances through higher tax revenues and improved tax collection, it may also strain government budgets as displacement impacts employment and consumption. Crucially, outcomes will depend on policy responses, with countries that invest in reskilling, education, and labor market support likely to strengthen their economies and credit profiles, while those that fail to manage the transition risk long-term damage to growth, social cohesion, and fiscal stability.