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European Edition
2nd October 2024
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THE HOT STORY
LIBOR officially phased out after 54 years
The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), a key benchmark for borrowing rates, has officially been phased out after 54 years, following a series of scandals that began in the early 2010s. The Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) confirmed that all 35 LIBOR settings have permanently ceased, saying that the transition has "made financial markets safer, more stable and fit for modern use." Once underpinning around $400trn in financial contracts, LIBOR's manipulation led to fines exceeding $10bn and prompted a shift towards risk-free rates based on market data. Nikhil Rathi, FCA's chief executive, remarked: "The transition away from LIBOR is one of the most significant events in markets in this generation."
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CYBERSECURITY
Cyber incidents are a major worry for UK CEOs
According to a report by FGS Global, British business leaders are increasingly concerned about the impact of cyber-attacks, with 85% of firms experiencing a crisis in the past year. The survey, which included over 500 senior leaders from companies like EY and JD Sports, revealed that 36% faced cyber incidents. Jenny Davey, a partner at FGS Global, said: “The consensus from our in-depth interviews is that crises are becoming more prevalent, but also more unpredictable.” Additionally, over half of the respondents expressed fear of ransomware attacks, yet only 36% felt “highly prepared” to handle such incidents.
Hackers target UK law firms' passwords
Research reveals that over 1m passwords linked to UK law firms are circulating on the dark web. The study, conducted by Atlas Cloud, found that 72.2% of the 5,140 law firms audited had employee username and password combinations exposed online. The data indicates an average of 195 password combinations per firm, raising concerns about potential cyber infiltration. Pete Watson, CEO of Atlas Cloud, said: “The sheer volume of password combinations available to criminals is a stark reminder of the threat that cyber poses to a firm.” Furthermore, less than half (46.2%) of the firms have implemented DMARC, a vital security measure against domain hijacking, increasing their vulnerability. The number of reported cyber-attacks on UK law firms has surged by 36%, underscoring the urgent need for enhanced security measures.
REGULATION
FCA officials accused of misleading online audience
The Transparency Task Force (TTF) has accused the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) of "peddling a false narrative" during its recent online annual meeting. The group, led by founder Andy Agathangelou, claims that FCA officials misrepresented the investor protection regime, particularly regarding the "consumer duty" which it asserts was inaccurately portrayed as mandated by parliament. The TTF has called for a return to in-person meetings, arguing that the digital format hindered accountability. The FCA maintains that its consumer duty aligns with parliamentary requirements.
FCA mulls rules on publishing call waiting times
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is contemplating a new measure that would require banks to disclose their call waiting times, as it aims to assist frustrated customers. Sheldon Mills, executive director for consumers and competition at the FCA, said: "I will think about whether or not there should be more transparency in terms of customer waiting times." The initiative follows suggestions from consumers during the FCA's annual public meeting, where attendees expressed the need for access to waiting times before choosing a bank.
COMPLIANCE
UK regulator preparing for ‘strong action’ against tech giants
Ofcom's chief executive, Melanie Dawes, has announced that the regulator will take "strong action" against technology companies that violate the upcoming Online Safety Act.
ECONOMY
Manufacturing growth slows amid uncertainty
The UK's manufacturing sector has experienced a slowdown in growth, with the S&P Global UK manufacturing PMI survey recording a reading of 51.5 for September, down from 52.5 in August. Despite factory output rising for the fifth consecutive month, confidence has plummeted to a nine-month low. Rob Dobson from S&P Global Market Intelligence noted: “Manufacturers have become more nervous about the outlook.” The decline in optimism is attributed to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming October Budget and broader global economic concerns. Input cost inflation has also surged to a 20-month high, prompting manufacturers to increase selling prices. This situation poses challenges for the Bank of England as it navigates interest rate policies amidst rising inflationary pressures.
Germany's manufacturing sector in freefall
Germany's manufacturing sector experienced its most significant contraction in a year during September, with the HCOB Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping to 40.6 from 42.4 in August. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline, indicating a deepening slowdown. Chief economist Cyrus de la Rubia said: "With orders drying up at an alarming rate, it is hard to picture any kind of recovery happening soon." The decline in new orders was the steepest since October last year, exacerbated by weak demand in the automotive sector and reduced export sales. Business confidence has also deteriorated, with over one-third of firms anticipating a decline in output over the next year due to geopolitical uncertainties and market challenges.
Michel Barnier announces tax rises and spending cuts
France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, who was formerly the EU’s Brexit negotiator, has announced plans for tax hikes on the wealthy and large companies in an effort to tackle the country’s “colossal” debt pile. Barnier told the National Assembly: “If we do not act, our country will be on the edge of the precipice.” France’s deficit is expected to hit about 6% of GDP, far higher than the 5.1% goal and the 2023 level of 5.5%. Barnier set a goal for the deficit to reach 5% of GDP by end-2025.
TAX
AIM market stumbles under tax raid fears
The London Stock Exchange's junior AIM market has seen a significant decline in flotations, reaching its lowest level since the financial crisis. Only £88.6m was raised through IPOs in the year ending 30 September, a mere 1% of the £8.8bn raised during its peak in 2006/07, according to UHY Hacker Young. The number of companies on AIM has decreased by 7% from 753 at the end of 2023 to 704 in August 2024. Concerns are mounting over Chancellor Rachel Reeves potentially scrapping inheritance tax relief on AIM shares, which could lead to a 15% withdrawal of cash from the market and a 20%-30% drop in stock values. Colin Wright, chair of UHY Hacker Young, said: “Speculation about the future of tax relief on AIM shares is very unhelpful for the market.”
UK tax burden unlikely to fall, IFS says
The UK's tax burden is projected to remain at its highest level since 1948, currently at 37% of national income, according to Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). He expressed doubt about any reduction in the near future, saying: “My guess is that it is going to stay there.” The increase is attributed to the 2021 rise in corporation tax and the freezing of personal tax thresholds. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that public spending could rise to 60% of GDP by the mid-2070s, driven primarily by escalating health costs. Johnson said: “If you're going to talk about cutting taxes, you have to talk very clearly about what gives on spending.”
STRATEGY
HSBC writes off Monese investment
HSBC has completely impaired its remaining $5.86m stake in Monese, a British fintech it invested in just two years ago. The banking giant's decision follows Monese's struggles to secure further funding and its recent restructuring efforts, which include the separation of its banking-as-a-service platform, now called XYB. Monese's consumer banking unit is reportedly being sold to Pockit, a fintech focused on underserved markets. Despite previous optimism, including a potential valuation of over £1bn, Monese's latest accounts revealed a widening pretax loss of £30.5m in 2022. HSBC's experience with Monese highlights the risks associated with fintech investments, especially as it competes with established players like Wise and Revolut through its own app, Zing.
Political uncertainty weighs on dealmaking
Peel Hunt has reported a slowdown in market activity within the financial sector, attributing this to uncertainties surrounding the upcoming autumn Budget and the US election. The investment bank noted that while its revenue increased to £53.3m for the six months ending September 30, up from £42.7m the previous year, it expects full-year performance to align with market expectations. Despite these challenges, Peel Hunt anticipates a rise in UK firms seeking to float in the latter half of the year.
CORPORATE
Mothercare shares suspended
Shares in Mothercare have been suspended after the retailer failed to meet the September 30 deadline for its audited results. The company requested the London Stock Exchange to halt trading on the junior Aim market, citing the final stages of a refinancing deal with its lender. The retailer anticipates publishing its annual accounts "in the next few weeks following the conclusion of the audit" and expects results to align with previous guidance.
OPERATIONAL
CityFibre suffers major cash crunch
CityFibre, the largest alternative broadband provider in the UK, has raised alarms about its financial stability as its debts have surged past £3bn. The company, which is backed by Goldman Sachs and Mubadala, said there is "material uncertainty" regarding its ability to continue operations without additional funding. Despite securing £4.9bn in debt financing two years ago, this is expected to be depleted by mid-next year. CityFibre recorded a loss of £419m in 2023, significantly up from £94m the previous year, as rising borrowing costs reached £253m. 
Most UK businesses given council Covid grants would have survived anyway
A report from the Department for Business and Trade reveals that three-quarters of businesses that received COVID-19 support grants from local authorities would have survived without them. Some £23bn was spent on grants to 1.4m businesses, but news that only a quarter needed the funds adds to mounting concerns about waste during the pandemic.


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