Trump’s tariffs to cut into global goods trade in 2026, says WTO |
President Donald Trump’s tariffs will cause a sharp slowdown in the growth of global goods trade in 2026, but the full impact of US trade policy will be felt later than previously thought, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has said. It now anticipates that goods trade will grow at just 0.5% in 2026, compared with an initial prediction of 2.5% in its April forecast. For 2025, it sees trade rising 2.4%, up from a prior forecast of 0.9%. “The tariffs have a significant effect. It’s just the timing that has changed,” said Marc Bacchetta, the WTO’s chief economic modeller. In the first half of 2025, world merchandise trade volume, measured by the average of exports and imports, increased by 4.9% year-on-year, with trade value rising 6% compared to 2% growth in 2024, according to the WTO report. The rush of exporters to send goods including machinery, motor vehicles, and lumber to the U.S. before the tariff increases, alongside a surge in demand for AI-related products, contributed to this growth, the report found.