| U.S. business activity rebounds as Iran conflict drives inflation pressures |
U.S. business activity has recovered in April, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 52.0 from 50.3 in March, indicating a return to expansion after near-stagnation, driven by a surge in manufacturing activity, where the PMI reached a 47-month high of 54.0 as firms increased production and built inventories amid concerns over supply disruptions and rising costs. The improvement was supported by stronger new orders and a modest rebound in the services sector to 51.3, though overall growth remains subdued, with economists noting the economy is still struggling to sustain annualized growth above 1%. At the same time, the conflict involving Iran has significantly disrupted global supply chains, particularly shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to longer supplier delivery times and sharp increases in input costs for commodities such as oil, fertilizers, and metals. This has pushed businesses’ input prices to an 11-month high and output prices to their highest level since mid-2022, signalling mounting inflationary pressure.