What Trump's win could mean for the economy |
The Wall Street Journal's Greg Ip says President-elect Donald Trump plans tariffs and tax cuts, like in his first term, "But there’s a difference . . . The tariffs he’s planning will be broader and higher, and the tax cuts more narrowly targeted." Trump can act on tariffs without asking Congress’s permission, but Ip notes that administrative procedures and negotiations could delay implementation. Although Trump has proposed tariffs that are much higher than those in his first term - at least 60% on China, and 10% to 20% on the rest of the world - Goldman Sachs economists believe he would raise tariffs on China by 20, not 60, percentage points, and will not impose an across-the-board tariff on other countries. Meanwhile, Ip notes that some of Trump’s tax proposals, which have at times included lower corporate tax rates, and exempting tips, Social Security benefits and overtime pay from taxes, would, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates, add about $4 trillion to the deficit over 10 years. The author also thinks that Trump's proposals for lighter regulation ought to boost growth and business confidence and hold down inflation, but economists think the effects are too difficult to identify in the broader economy. |
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