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Recent Editions
Risk Channel
North America
Congress has passed a new law granting President Joe Biden new powers to seize Russian dollar assets to aid Ukraine, sparking a debate over the potential consequences for foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries and the role of the dollar. The REPO provision, added to a $95bn aid package, allows the president to transfer Russian government assets to a Ukraine reconstruction fund. Concerns have been raised about the impact on American bond markets and the erosion of the dollar's position as the world's dominant currency. Russia has vowed to retaliate against any seizure of its assets, potentially leading to a confiscation of U.S. individuals' assets in Russia. The legislation also includes increased scrutiny of Chinese banks' transactions with Iran, which may further stoke concerns about the use of the dollar as a geopolitical tool. While de-dollarization may be considered by U.S. rivals, the dollar's status as a global store of value remains strong due to the size and liquidity of marketable Treasuries and an independent legal system.
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UK/Europe
The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is looking into whether Microsoft and Amazon’s partnerships with AI start-ups fall within UK merger rules. The competition watchdog is considering the impact partnerships between Microsoft and Mistral AI, Amazon and Anthropic, and Microsoft’s hiring of key figures from Inflection AI could have on competition in the UK. Joel Bamford, executive director of mergers at the CMA, said: “While we remain open minded, and haven’t drawn any conclusions, our aim is to better understand the complex partnerships and arrangements at play.” He added: “Given the global nature of these markets, competition authorities around the world are actively looking into AI.” A spokesperson for Amazon said: "It's unprecedented for the CMA to review a collaboration of this type," while a spokesman for Microsoft commented: “We remain confident that common business practices such as the hiring of talent or making a fractional investment in an AI start-up promote competition and are not the same as a merger.” The Times Katie Prescott reports that some UK-based AI start-ups have privately expressed concern that the CMA’s intervention could have a "chilling effect on investment in their own businesses from the only companies with the technical and financial firepower to help them develop."
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