Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that UK inflation rose to 2.2% in July, the first increase in 2024. The Bank of England expects inflation to go up to 2.75% in the coming months before falling below its target rate of 2% next year. ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said that while price growth “ticked up a little” in July, “inflation pressures at least in the short run are fairly moderate.” Economists predict that July’s slight increase in inflation could see policymakers opt to keep interest rates on hold in the immediate future. While Peter Arnold, EY UK’s chief economist, expects officials to keep the base rate at 5% in September before delivering another cut in November, RSM economist Thomas Pugh said the ONS data may not prompt a rate cut in September but “does open the door to two more cuts, rather than just one, later this year.” Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank Research, says it is “entirely conceivable to think that we could get multiple more rate cuts this year," Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said the latest ONS data “may not alleviate the Bank’s concerns about persistent price pressures entirely.”