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3rd June 2026
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THE HOT STORY
Insurers tighten coverage as private credit faces rising legal risks
Insurers that provide directors-and-officers liability coverage to private-credit firms are preparing for a potential wave of lawsuits and regulatory actions, prompting higher premiums and stricter policy terms amid growing scrutiny of valuation practices across the industry. Insurance executives expect premium increases to accelerate, with some forecasting double-digit rises as concerns mount over how private-credit funds value their loan portfolios. Marsh reported that premiums for private-credit and private-equity D&O policy renewals increased 3% year-over-year in the first quarter, while rates for public companies generally remained flat. The heightened caution follows a surge in investor redemption requests and concerns that some private-credit assets, particularly loans to software companies vulnerable to AI disruption, may be overvalued. Industry leaders have pushed back on those fears, although Apollo Global Management chief executive Marc Rowan recently pledged greater transparency, including daily pricing for private-credit funds by September.
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TAX
U.S. proposes tariffs of at least 10% after forced labor probe
The United States Trade Representative has proposed imposing additional tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, including the European Union and the U.K., arguing that their failure to adequately restrict goods produced using forced labor places U.S. businesses and workers at a competitive disadvantage. Under the proposal, the E.U., Canada, Mexico, Indonesia, Ecuador, and Pakistan would face an additional 10% tariff due to alleged shortcomings in enforcing existing restrictions, while the U.K. and 53 other economies, including Japan, India, Switzerland, and Saudi Arabia, would face a 12.5% tariff for not having effective bans in place. The proposed measures, which remain subject to consultation and review, could reignite trade tensions with key U.S. partners just weeks after the E.U. agreed a trade framework with Washington that capped tariffs on most E.U. exports at 15%. The investigation was conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, providing an alternative legal basis for tariffs after U.S. courts ruled against the Trump administration’s earlier use of emergency powers to impose broad trade duties.
Tax incentives emerge as critical driver for renewable energy projects
As key federal solar and wind tax credits are phased out by the end of 2027, state and local tax incentives are expected to become increasingly important in determining where renewable energy projects are developed. Industry experts argue that tax incentives are often as critical to project economics as the underlying value of the energy assets themselves. States such as Texas, New York, and New Mexico are positioned to benefit from a combination of favorable tax policies, stable incentive programs, strong infrastructure, and growing energy demand. Conversely, states including California, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia may face challenges attracting future renewable investment. California continues to benefit from an established solar market, but expiring incentives, reduced compensation for exported solar power, higher taxes, and regulatory complexity could weigh on future development. Pennsylvania’s solar growth has been constrained by limited incentives, while Tennessee and West Virginia lack the scale of support needed to attract significant new projects.
ECONOMY
U.S. job openings jump to two-year high as hiring slows
U.S. job openings surged to 7.6m in April, the highest level since May 2024 and well above expectations, signaling stronger labor demand even as hiring activity slowed and worker mobility weakened. According to the Labor Department's’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), available positions increased by 731,000 from March, far exceeding economists’ forecasts of 6.8m. The rise pushed the number of job openings above the total number of unemployed workers, with the openings rate climbing to 4.6% of the labor force. The increase was driven primarily by professional and business services, which added 668,000 openings, while healthcare and social assistance contributed another 89,000. Financial activities saw a decline of 134,000 openings, with most other sectors showing little change. Despite the rise in vacancies, hiring weakened. Employers hired 5.12m workers during the month, down 419,000 from March, reducing the hiring rate to 3.2%. Layoffs and discharges also declined modestly to 1.7m, while voluntary quits fell by 183,000 to just under 3m, their lowest level since August 2020, indicating reduced worker confidence in finding new opportunities.
LEGAL
Trump administration abandons $1.8bn ‘anti-weaponization’ fund
The Trump administration has officially scrapped its proposed $1.8bn “anti-weaponization” fund after facing strong bipartisan criticism and resistance from Republican lawmakers, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche told Congress. The fund had been intended to compensate individuals who claimed they were unfairly targeted by politically motivated legal actions, but critics argued it could have benefited Trump allies and participants in the January 6th Capitol riot. The fund became a major obstacle to a separate immigration enforcement package moving through Congress, prompting Republican senators to demand its cancellation. However, the administration will maintain a related settlement provision that ended pending IRS audits of Mr. Trump, his family, and certain associates. That aspect of the agreement has also drawn scrutiny from lawmakers in both parties, with some Republicans questioning its legality and Democrats calling for legislative action to prevent similar arrangements. The settlement was part of an agreement resolving Mr. Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS over the disclosure of his tax returns and other related claims.
TECHNOLOGY
Humanoid robots set to explode
Humanoid robots are projected to grow into a $200bn market within the next decade, according to Barclays. Zornitza Todorova, head of thematic FICC research at Barclays, stated: “It's the decade of the robot,” highlighting the rapid evolution of humanoid technology. Currently valued at $2bn-$3bn, the market is expected to expand significantly as robots take on roles in sectors like manufacturing and logistics. China leads in this field, accounting for 85% of global installations and producing robots at lower costs than Western competitors. Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities noted that humanoid robots could represent a major opportunity in the AI Revolution, predicting that “this will change the way consumers and businesses operate over time.” The report anticipates two waves of deployment, with the first focusing on industrial applications and the second on services-oriented roles post-2030.
REGULATION
Trump signs EO expanding federal oversight of advanced AI models
President Donald Trump has signed a new executive order requiring artificial intelligence companies to provide the federal government with access to powerful AI models 30 days before their public release, marking a significant shift toward greater oversight of advanced AI systems. The order is a scaled-back version of a proposal that was withdrawn in May, reducing the voluntary review period from 90 days to 30 days after concerns that longer reviews could hinder innovation and weaken U.S. competitiveness against China. The directive also instructs national security and cybersecurity officials to work with government agencies and technology companies to identify and address software vulnerabilities uncovered by advanced AI models. The move highlights ongoing divisions within the administration between officials advocating stronger safeguards around frontier AI technologies and those favoring minimal regulation to accelerate deployment. Supporters, including White House science and technology officials, argue the framework strengthens cybersecurity while preserving America's leadership in AI. Critics, however, contend the measures are insufficient to address the risks posed by increasingly powerful AI systems and could eventually lead to more formal regulation.
CORPORATE
Trading firm revenues soar to $114bn after push to take on Wall St banks
Trading firms including Jane Street and Citadel Securities generated combined revenues of $114bn last year, according to Crisil Coalition Greenwich, a 45% increase from 2024.
Victoria’s Secret raises outlook after strong Q1 beat
Victoria’s Secret has reported first-quarter results ahead of expectations, with revenue rising 15% to $1.56bn, comparable sales increasing 13% and adjusted earnings per share doubling analyst forecasts at 60 cents. The lingerie retailer raised full-year guidance, now expecting revenue of $7.03bn-$7.13bn and adjusted operating income of $550m-$580m, citing stronger-than-expected sales, improved full-price selling and lower tariff costs, while management said momentum has continued into the current quarter as its turnaround strategy gains traction. “We are really hitting our stride”, said chief executive Hillary Super, who also commented that the group's labels, which include PINK and Beauty as well as its namesake brand, "are gaining cultural relevance ⁠and expanding their customer files".
INTERNATIONAL
OECD warns of global growth slump
The OECD has downgraded its global economic outlook, warning that the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptions to energy supplies could significantly weaken growth, raise inflation, and increase recession risks if a lasting resolution is not reached soon. In its latest Economic Outlook, the organization forecast global growth will slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026, before recovering modestly to 3.1% in 2027, assuming energy market disruptions ease during the second half of the year. However, under a more severe scenario in which shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Gulf energy infrastructure persist through 2027, global growth could fall to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, pushing some economies into or close to recession. The OECD warned that prolonged supply disruptions would drive higher energy, food, and industrial input costs, lifting global inflation by up to 1.3 percentage points in 2027, while weakening investment, increasing unemployment, and creating additional risks for financial markets.
AND FINALLY...
World Cup could take employees’ eyes off the ball
UKG research estimates the World Cup could cost global employers $17bn in lost productivity, as 37% of workers plan to change their schedules during the tournament. The survey of 8,000 employees across eight countries found 27% may arrive late, leave early or miss work, while 14% expect to secretly stream matches during work hours. The expanded tournament, hosted by the U.S., Canada and Mexico, will feature 48 nations and 104 games. Suresh Vittal, chief product officer at UKG, said: “Productivity drops, customer experience suffers, and morale takes a hit.”
 

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