Q4 productivity growth revised lower but underlying trend remains resilient |
U.S. worker productivity growth was revised down more sharply than expected to an annualized 1.8% in the fourth quarter, from an initial estimate of 2.8%, reflecting weaker economic output following a downgrade to GDP growth. Despite the softer quarterly reading, the broader trend remains solid, with productivity rising 2.5% year-on-year and averaging around 2.1% since 2019, suggesting underlying efficiency gains in the economy. However, the revision was accompanied by a significant increase in unit labor costs, which rose at a 4.4% rate, as stronger-than-expected hourly wage growth, up 6.3%, outpaced productivity gains. The rise in labor costs has raised concerns about inflation, with economists noting that sustained increases at this pace would be inconsistent with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, though some expect the pressure to ease as the labor market softens.