Weekly benefits filings trend closer to a labor market normal |
Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal have forecast that initial jobless claims for the week ended June 12 have declined to a new pandemic low of 360,000, from 376,000 for the week earlier. The WSJ says that the steady recent decline in jobless claims is bringing weekly totals closer to what would indicate a more typical labor market. The long-term average of initial jobless claims dating back to 1967—including periods of expansion and recession—is 371,763, according to Labor Department data. The four-week moving average for the week ended June 5 was 402,500. Director of economic research at Moody's Analytics Adam Kamins said he thinks the normal range is lower, between 200,000 and 250,000, without factoring in recessions. “More and more consumer-facing industries that were decimated by the pandemic are coming back online,” Mr. Kamins said. He added that in his view a level in the low to mid 200,000s “would be the indicator that we’ve leveled off.” Other economists offered different views on what a normal range of new jobless claims looks like, with totals of up to 350,000 a week. |
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