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Risk Channel
North America
Tariff gamble brings political risk for Trump

Reuters reports that President Donald Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs is a political risk for his party and could bring economic pain to his constituents if his promises to overhaul the U.S. economy do not deliver. Experts believe it will take years to revitalize U.S. manufacturing, alter supply chains and reshore production, the goals which Trump and his Republican supporters suggest the tariffs will achieve. "[Trump] has a high tolerance for pain, but it could turn into real pain at the ballot box [in] November 2026," observed Mike Dubke, a former communications director for the president during his first term. "The concern here is what point are we going to see the benefits that he and his advisers believe we're going to reap? Because he's only got 18 months before the midterms." Meanwhile the New York Times says the tariffs are just the latest sign of Trump's second-term appetite for risk. “He is obviously exceedingly confident about how he thinks these policies will play out,” said Matthew P. Goodman, the director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “[But] to think this is not going to have an impact on the markets, and on prices and on economic growth, is really stretching one’s imagination.”

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Risk Channel
UK/Europe
Donald Trump announces sweeping global trade tariffs

President Donald Trump has set out plans for new import taxes on all goods entering the US, with a baseline tariff on all imports of at least 10% and higher rates for countries that the White House described as the "worst offenders." Officials say the 10% tariffs will come into force on April 5, with the higher duties starting on April 9. While goods from the UK are set to face a new 10% tariff, import taxes on items from the EU will be set at 20%. Nations facing the highest charges to import goods to the US include China (34%), India (26%) and Japan (24%). Mr Trump has also confirmed a 25% tax on imports of all foreign-made cars. Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the "plan for blanket tariffs on US trading partners has unnerved investors," adding: "As Trump has ripped up trade norms, it’s spread fresh worries about the implication for the global economy." The National Institute of Economic and Social Research think-tank has warned that the US tariffs could knock UK growth down to zero next year, noting: "Even if the UK were exempt from these tariffs, economic activity could still suffer due to broader global disruptions."

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