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Risk Channel
North America
Manufacturing activity in February on brink of contraction territory

Two gauges of U.S. manufacturing activity released on Tuesday indicate a slowdown in the sector over the past month. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index declined 1.3 points last month to 49, below the 50-mark separating expansion from contraction. The index of factory orders slumped to the lowest level since May 2023. Along with a bigger contraction in order backlogs, the drop in bookings caused production to shrink for the first time this year. Seven industries contracted in March, led by wood products, paper, plastics and rubber, and furniture. Nine industries reported growth, including textiles, petroleum and coal, and fabricated metals. Meanwhile, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI just remained in expansion territory for a third straight month in March at 50.2, signaling a marginal improvement in operating conditions. “The strong start to the year for U.S. manufacturers has faltered in March," commented S&P chief business economist Chris Williamson. "A combination of improved optimism surrounding the new administration and the need to front-run tariffs had buoyed the goods-producing sector in the first two months of the year, but cracks are now starting to appear. Production fell for the first time in three months in March, and order books are becoming increasingly depleted."

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Risk Channel
UK/Europe
UK 'will take calm approach to US tariffs'

The UK will take a calm approach to US trade tariffs, rather than "a knee-jerk reaction," Sir Keir Starmer has said. The prime minister suggested the UK would be affected by President Donald Trump's expected announcement today of sweeping taxes on goods imported to the US. The UK has so far failed to negotiate an exemption, but Sir Keir said talks on a deal that could eventually see them overturned were at an "advanced stage." He told his cabinet he was "keeping all options on the table" to respond to the tariffs, which economists warn could damage the UK economy and increase the cost of living. In a cabinet meeting yesterday, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said global tariffs would "have an impact on the UK as an open trading economy," but she insisted "securing a deal could mitigate some of those effects."

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