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U.S. CFO confidence strong before Iran conflict, Fed survey finds

U.S. corporate finance chiefs reported a solid and improving economic outlook heading into 2026, with expectations of steady growth in demand, hiring, and revenues, according to a Federal Reserve survey conducted between mid-February and early March, largely before the escalation of the Iran conflict. Respondents forecast median revenue growth of 5% over the next 12 months, alongside a 1.6% increase in employment, indicating continued expansion plans across businesses. At the same time, firms anticipated ongoing inflationary pressures, with both prices and unit costs expected to rise by 3%, suggesting that companies still expect to pass higher costs on to customers despite easing macroeconomic concerns. Sentiment had improved notably compared to 2025, particularly as concerns around tariffs and trade policy declined, with just over 20% of CFOs citing them as their primary concern versus nearly 40% previously. However, trade policy remained the top issue overall, followed by labor quality and availability (17%) and sales outlook (15%), highlighting persistent structural challenges in the labor market and demand visibility.

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