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Recent Editions
Risk Channel
North America
The United States Trade Representative has proposed imposing additional tariffs of 10%-12.5% on imports from 60 economies, including the European Union and the U.K., arguing that their failure to adequately restrict goods produced using forced labor places U.S. businesses and workers at a competitive disadvantage. Under the proposal, the E.U., Canada, Mexico, Indonesia, Ecuador, and Pakistan would face an additional 10% tariff due to alleged shortcomings in enforcing existing restrictions, while the U.K. and 53 other economies, including Japan, India, Switzerland, and Saudi Arabia, would face a 12.5% tariff for not having effective bans in place. The proposed measures, which remain subject to consultation and review, could reignite trade tensions with key U.S. partners just weeks after the E.U. agreed a trade framework with Washington that capped tariffs on most E.U. exports at 15%. The investigation was conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, providing an alternative legal basis for tariffs after U.S. courts ruled against the Trump administration’s earlier use of emergency powers to impose broad trade duties.
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Risk Channel
UK/Europe
Britain is at risk of a "vicious circle" of rising borrowing costs if it fails to control debt, Andrew Bailey has warned. Higher costs on the Government’s near-£3tn debt could derail the Chancellor’s fiscal plans, weaken confidence, and push borrowing costs higher, the governor of the Bank of England said. Rates have climbed globally since the Iran war began, but Britain’s have risen more than any G7 nation, increasing pressure on public finances. Debt interest was already forecast to exceed £100bn annually. Bailey also said the Bank could continue to offload bonds for one to two years, despite calculations showing gilt sales are having a bigger effect on raising government borrowing costs than previously estimated. Meanwhile, Megan Greene, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, warned that interest rates may need to rise as the conflict wears on.
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