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Recent Editions
Risk Channel
North America
Congress has passed a new law granting President Joe Biden new powers to seize Russian dollar assets to aid Ukraine, sparking a debate over the potential consequences for foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries and the role of the dollar. The REPO provision, added to a $95bn aid package, allows the president to transfer Russian government assets to a Ukraine reconstruction fund. Concerns have been raised about the impact on American bond markets and the erosion of the dollar's position as the world's dominant currency. Russia has vowed to retaliate against any seizure of its assets, potentially leading to a confiscation of U.S. individuals' assets in Russia. The legislation also includes increased scrutiny of Chinese banks' transactions with Iran, which may further stoke concerns about the use of the dollar as a geopolitical tool. While de-dollarization may be considered by U.S. rivals, the dollar's status as a global store of value remains strong due to the size and liquidity of marketable Treasuries and an independent legal system.
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UK/Europe
UK banks may face significant losses due to nature-related risks such as water scarcity and pollution, according to a study by the Green Finance Institute. The study warns that failure to address these risks could result in a 5% decline in the value of UK bank portfolios and a broader 12% economic decline by 2030. Nicola Ranger, director for greening finance at the University of Oxford, stated that these risks are material to both the economy and the financial system. The UK, which is struggling with ecosystem degradation, is one of the most nature-depleted countries in the world, analysis suggests. The financial consequences of ignoring these risks could surpass those of the 2008 financial crisis and rival the economic setback caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the study, which identifies agriculture, utilities and manufacturing as the sectors most exposed to nature-related risks in the UK.
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